We’re getting to everyone’s favorite time of an election year. The time when commercial breaks become political ads for candidates and issues, bombarding us with “…and I approved this message” campaign ads.

The House is already in full campaign mode after adjourning, and the Senate is expected to follow sometime during the week of September 22. This marks the real beginning of a six-week push to the election that will end with us all begging for the return of Liberty Mutual, Old Spice and ChatGPT commercials.

Much of the news until then will come from polling. We know. We rolled our eyes too. But instead of resisting polls, I thought this could be a good opportunity to talk about why they exist and how everyone can learn to interpret them.

If you’re interested, Deep Reason also contains some election predictions. I’m not saying they’re more exciting than watching College GameDay or The Real Housewives, but some of us are real nerds for the politics thing.

— Teddy Brosevelt
Hopeless pollster, political ad critic

The House ended voting on September 16 and plans to return November 9; the Senate returns September 22 for a short work period before campaigning resumes. With little floor action ahead, polls will shape which races campaigns, donors and newsrooms treat as competitive over the next several weeks - so this edition breaks down how to read them.

A poll asks a selected group of people what they think or how they expect to vote, then weights the answers to better resemble the larger public. It is an estimate of opinion during the interview dates, not an early count of ballots.

Our practical rule: prefer averages over single polls, and treat any lead below five points as uncertain. Five points is safer than a common three-point sampling margin, and leaves room for the kind of partisan miss seen in every presidential cycle since 2016.

The pitfalls run deeper than sampling error. Pollsters must decide whom to contact, who is likely to vote and how much weight to give each answer - and the American Association for Public Opinion Research warns that a poll is a snapshot, not a declaration of a winner.

We applied those rules to build a full House and Senate forecast for November, averaging six forecasters' ratings and weighing each close Senate race by candidate strength and campaign money.

This is a forecast, not a fact about the future. After every race is final, we will compare each call with the result and explain what we read correctly or incorrectly.

Deep Reason explains what polls are, why campaigns release them, what the accuracy record since 2016 shows, our full House and Senate forecast and why candidate strength changes our calls in close races.

What's Loud: On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised its target interest-rate range by one-quarter point, to 3.75% to 4%. This is the rate banks charge one another for very short loans, and changes can reach credit cards, business loans and other borrowing.

What's Missing: On September 17, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that prices for goods imported into the United States rose 0.7% in August and 7% over the prior year. Non-fuel imports also rose, so the increase was not limited to oil.

What Matters: The rate increase makes borrowing more expensive in an effort to slow price growth. The import report shows why that job is difficult: businesses are paying more for foreign goods and may pass some of those costs to customers.

On September 15th, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that military operations against Iran cost the Defense Department about $38 billion through August 1, and that the resulting energy disruptions would make inflation in early 2027 half a percentage point higher than it projected in February. That estimate does not cover every federal cost: CBO, Congress's budget research agency, said continued combat at the levels it studied could add $2 billion to $3 billion per month.

The Securities and Exchange Commission allowed a limited test of tokenized stocks, digital records of company ownership that can be traded using blockchain technology in a rule released September 17th. Approved trading sites must limit volume, control access and keep records, and the order is a temporary trial while the agency considers permanent investor-protection rules.

The Supreme Court refused to revive new Postal Service rules for election mail before November 3rd in a decision dated September 14th. The blocked rules would require special logos, machine-readable envelopes, voter barcodes and data uploads.

Justice Brett Kavanaugh wrote that the Postal Service might have the legal power to adopt the rules later, but election offices did not have enough time to make the changes safely for this election.

On September 17th, the Federal Aviation Administration ordered inspections of certain Boeing 737-8, 737-9 and 737-8200 aircraft after cracks were found near a front kitchen door. The rule takes effect October 22 and requires repeat checks because an unrepaired crack could weaken part of the aircraft's structure.

The Social Security projected September 17th that the retirement trust fund is expected to run out of reserves in fiscal year 2032, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

We hold government to the record. Hold us to it too — hit reply with feedback or things we missed.