Tomorrow, the country votes. This edition covers the final campaign stops, what the forecasters are calling and a court order on mail ballots. It also raises a question that surfaced over the weekend: when following your conscience is costly, do we want politics that encourages independence or that requires loyalty? How much do we, as a country and as parties, really value independent thought in our elections?

I believe America's democracy is a differentiator, and though imperfect, a beacon to the rest of the world that we can be imperfect and still keep our freedom to choose, including at the ballot box. When we start demanding loyalty in exchange for a place in the party, we begin living in intolerance that both sacrifices and relinquishes the independence that has made us exceptional.

Pundits will argue righteousness and sanctimony to convince you to vote one way or the other. They do not control your vote unless you let them.

Teddy Brosevelt
Soapbox builder

What's Loud: Rep. Haley Stevens, who lost the Aug. 4 Democratic Senate primary to Abdul El-Sayed by less than one percentage point, 48.5% to 47.5% unofficially, said in a Nov. 1 video, "I am endorsing Mike Rogers for the United States Senate today." The backlash was fierce. Michigan Democratic Party Chair Curtis Hertel Jr. wrote that "Congresswoman Stevens is not a current member of the Michigan Democratic Party, nor will she be in the future." Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer called the endorsement "a despicable betrayal," and DNC Black Caucus Chair Virgie Rollins said Stevens "has revealed herself to be a sellout."

What's Missing: Stevens had asked El-Sayed to disavow an outside group's ad she called antisemitic; she said he then told her she was no longer welcome in his campaign: "And he's right." Stevens has said, "I still love the party," despite the state party saying she is no longer a member. Rogers wrote that she is "a courageous leader who deserves the respect of every Michigan voter."

What Matters: Should a candidate always support the party's nominee, even after losing a primary or when they find the nominee's positions inappropriate or worse? Should breaking ranks get someone thrown out of the party? What matters most: the freedom to choose, loyalty to the party above all, or winning no matter what? Do parties decide who gets to belong, or do we decide which party we belong to? The difference is subtle but meaningful.

What's Loud: President Trump held rallies in Corpus Christi, Texas, on Oct. 27, Rock Hill, S.C., on Oct. 29 and Dubuque, Iowa, on Nov. 1, with a Lincoln Memorial event and nine tele-rallies scheduled for today. At Rock Hill he said, "But if the Democrats win the midterms, they will burn it all down." At Corpus Christi: "The Democrats will attack us, what kind of a deal is that?" At a Michigan rally for El-Sayed, former President Obama said of Trump, "He's got the White House looking like Saddam Hussein opened a Cheesecake Factory," and in Detroit on Oct. 24 he blamed a "spineless Congress and Republican governors who are enabling all of this lawlessness and corruption."

What's Missing: Candidates can draw sharp differences without insults. Each of the four lines above, two from each side, is aimed at people, the opposing candidates or their party, rather than at a policy or idea that could move the country forward. Chances are the ads in your state, from both parties, do the same. The same week he joked about Trump, Obama told a Morrow, Ga., crowd on Oct. 28, "I don't know about you, but I am tired of being angry. I'm tired of being divided." Trump and Obama have each led their party for most of two decades, as voters handed control of Congress back and forth with increasing divisiveness.

What Matters: Elections have consequences, so sharp contrasts are fair game. But it is hard to get past us-versus-them when the people asking for our votes call the other side the enemy or evil. The Nov. 3 election gives voters a voice.

What's Loud: Every published forecast we found favors Democrats. Silver Bulletin said on Nov. 1 that Democrats have "about a 95 percent chance of retaking the House" and "a meaningful edge" in the Senate. Decision Desk HQ projects Democrats winning the Senate 52 seats to 48, giving them a 62% chance. Sabato's Crystal Ball said on Oct. 27, as reported by Political Wire, that Democrats "seem to have a slight advantage" in the Senate.

What's Missing: A firm call. Most handicappers flag the soft spots but stop short of naming a winner, and the models speak in probabilities. We found no credible forecaster in the final days willing to predict that Republicans keep the House.

What Matters: Forecasters can read polling, sentiment and a subjective feel from the ground. A probability is not an outcome; voters decide tomorrow.

Ninth Circuit refuses emergency relief in the California mail ballot case

On Oct. 30, a Ninth Circuit panel denied an emergency motion filed by the Department of Justice (DOJ).

On Oct. 12, the federal government gave California and Los Angeles County a list of voters it believes are "high-confidence" noncitizens and asked them to set those mail ballots aside until citizenship could be checked. California refused, questioning the list's reliability. DOJ asked the court to order the ballots set aside and verified, right away, while the appeal plays out. The court found DOJ had not met its burden, so the ballots will not be set aside before tomorrow's count. The order does not decide whether DOJ's underlying claims are right, and the appeal continues.

White House-Executive

The Education Department published a final rule changing how it oversees accreditors, the groups that decide which colleges qualify for federal student aid. Specifically, it sets rules for handling transferring credits. It carries out Executive Order 14279 and takes effect July 1, 2027.

The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) issued an interim final rule, effective before public comment closes, placing the new ADHD drug centanafadine (Simtriyo) in Schedule III, the tier for drugs with medical uses and some abuse risk. The rule clears the way for sale by prescription only, with limits such as five refills in six months.

Courts

The Fifth Circuit on Oct. 30 granted rehearing en banc in Trader Joe's v. National Labor Relations Board, vacating its Feb. 18 panel opinion in the labor dispute. The full court, rather than a three-judge panel, will now decide the case.

Vote.gov lets you check your registration status. To find your polling place, contact your state or local election office, since rules vary by state.

In the last midterm, 2022, 52.2% of voting-age citizens cast a ballot, according to the Census Bureau. That means nearly half of eligible Americans let someone else decide.

Edition No. 38

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